A new statewide poll of South Dakota Republican voters shows U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson and Gov. Larry Rhoden in a statistical tie for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, with 28% backing Johnson and 27% supporting Rhoden. The poll, conducted Oct. 16–20 by Mason-Dixon Polling and co-sponsored by South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy, has a margin of error of ±4.5%.
Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden has surged to 15%, and House Speaker Jon Hansen follows with 10%, up significantly from 4% and 2% respectively in April. About 21% of voters remain undecided.
Doeden, running as a populist outsider, has gained traction through heavy advertising and a message challenging the political establishment. Analysts say his rise could push Johnson and Rhoden—both seen as moderates—further to the right.
If no candidate secures at least 35% in the June 2 primary, a runoff will be held between the top two. With seven months to go, experts say the race remains fluid, especially if Hansen or Doeden drop out or continue to build momentum.
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