I lost the lone baseball play that I had on my card last night as the Diamondbacks destroyed the Padres. Once again, Walker Buehler lost after allowing a bunch of runs. I don’t know if this is a blip in his season or if last month was a fluke for his performance this year. I’m looking to avenge myself with a game from a different series as the Mariners take on the Marlins.
The Seattle Mariners have a bit of distance from the .500 mark as they are now three games over. While this isn’t anything to celebrate, it does give them at least a little bit of positivity to look at for now. This is not a team that anyone was thinking would throw in the towel anyway. They have a great chance to win the division, and with their roster, they should have plenty of potential to win games down the stretch. I also think this rotation is one you don’t want to face in the postseason.
Before they get to the postseason, they need to find a way to navigate the rest of the season. Tonight, one of those studs from the rotation, Bryan Woo, takes the pill and goes for Seattle. Woo is 7-6 for the season with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. I look closely at those numbers regularly, and I think that Woo is probably due for a very good second half of the season. His WHIP means he doesn’t have a ton of traffic on the bases, and he is allowing just one homer every ten innings. Most of his troubles have happened on the road this season. He is 1-6 on the road with a 6.38 ERA, and teams are batting .284 against him compared to .156 at home. His last four road starts have seen him allow four or more earned runs. He has never faced any of the Marlins hitters.
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The Miami Marlins are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have been great since around May 25th. That day started an eight-game winning streak, and they went from 25-29 to now sitting at 47-44. That’s a 22-15 stretch, which isn’t great, but they have also won five of the past six games they’ve played. The trade deadline should be interesting to see if the team gets a chance to make a run at the postseason or if the team decides to test the trade market, as this is still part of the rebuilding plan.
Their main resource on the trade market is actually not starting tonight — that would be Sandy Alcantara, who will have a lot of interest should the Marlins decide to part ways. Tonight’s starter is Max Meyer, who has put together a fantastic season. He is 9-1 for the year with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He has been better at home than on the road, but has struggled a bit in night games. Throughout the season, he has only had two starts in which he has allowed more than four earned runs. Overall, the Mariners are hitting just 3-for-13 against Meyer in their careers.
Based mostly on the splits for these two pitchers, there is clearly one better than the other. Woo is a phenomenal pitcher, but his road struggles are so bad, and they’ve been bad lately. I do think there is a possibility that since the Marlins hitters have never seen him before, they will struggle against Woo the first or second time through.
On the other hand, Meyer is one of the better starters in the league this season. He has been very good at limiting the damage and figuring out ways to navigate issues. The Mariners have had some success in limited opportunities against him, but I think Meyer is pitching better than expected this year. Give me the Marlins in this one on the moneyline.
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